2020年10月31日星期六
 
專家論市
Martin Hennecke

Boffin warns again of US dollar crash
 
25/09/2020
 
<p>The onshore yuan fell to a two-week low as economist Stephen Roach warned next year will be brutal for the US dollar and odds on a double-dip recession are above 50 percent in the United States.</p><p>The onshore yuan fell 320 points to 6.842 per one US dollar yesterday.</p><p>Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, believed his idea that the dollar would crash shouldn&#39;t seem so crazy any more as he found data that&#39;s confirmed both the saving and current account dynamic in a much more dramatic fashion than even he was looking for. He sees it happening by the end of 2021.</p><p>Roach predicted last June the US dollar would plunge 35 percent.</p><p>&quot;The current account deficit in the US suffered a record deterioration in the second quarter,&quot; he told CNBC. &quot;The so-called net-national savings rate also recorded a record decline in the second quarter, going back into negative territory for the first time since the global financial crisis.</p><p>&quot;Lacking in savings and wanting to grow, we run these current account deficits to borrow surplus savings, and that always pushes the currencies lower,&quot; he said.</p><p>Meanwhile, the chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, pointed out that there are undoubtedly bubbles in the US economy and &quot;the Fed knows there&#39;s a bubble because any time the air starts coming out of it, it&#39;s there to blow more into it. I mean all of its policies are deliberately designed to maintain that bubble.&quot;</p><p>Schiff said: &quot;We don&#39;t need more infrastructure spending either. We can&#39;t afford that. We&#39;re broke.&quot;</p><p>In the week ending September 19, the figure for initial claims of unemployment insurance was up 4,000 week-on-week to 870,000, the US Department of Labor said.</p><p>The International Monetary Fund said the pandemic is dragging on longer than expected and warned some countries&#39; economies may take years to recover growth.</p>
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